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| 据Gartner咨询公司称：半导体库存现状比想象的要糟糕 | ||||||||
| 2008-5-15 11:10:41 中国传动网 翻译 供稿 | ||||||||
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| Gartner公司报道称电子类供应链中半导体存货现状要比早期给出的警示指标更糟。 该公司在三月份给出的预测说：从2007年第四季度起在电子供应链中过剩的库存将继续影响2008年第二季度的半导体行业。Gartner的此项声明是在其DASI（半导体库存指数）基础之上给出的，从该数据看，库存量在2007第四季度时明显攀升，低迷的半导体库存量从2007年第三季度的1.04增涨到1.16，需要降低对2008第一季度的销售估测。 Gartner公司说，DASI是通过电子供应链比较行业目前的水平来评定标准库存水平，并对行业趋势做出预测。该指数测定是在每个生产阶段都测试正常的库存，实现产品平稳的循环和生产过程的管理，不再出在库存短缺或过剩情况。 Gartner分析家Gerald Van Hoy在半导体DQ星期一报道中说：“我们正在研究2007年第四季度的结果，其可以从实际的角度显示DASI数据，从实际状况折射DASI显示的库存，并从实际上指示严重的过剩库存信息（1.20或是更高），在1.22到1.25之间。” Van Hoy说修订此版本的原因是DASI是一个预言性的，利用一致数据，来测定下一季度的收入趋势的指数数据。因为Gartner正在监控库存天数，从COGS（主营业务成本）中的值为进行估算，实际的数字能够影响上一季度的最终结果。此外，Gartner利用公司的边际利润率来决定他们的COGS，随后利润率被用来决定库存天数。 Van Hoy说：“2007第四季度库存量为什么会这么严格是因为在我们的模块中拥有精确的COGS数值。 同时，我们看到2008年第一季度的估测半不是很完善。" Gartner在三月建议半导体公司应当持平或是降低库存。市场研究公司报道英特尔的库存相对比较多。根据Gartner统计，英特尔从2006年第四季度的89.4降低到了2007年第四季度的67.9。Gartner在Xilinx, Pixelworks, Mindspeed Technologies, Qimonda, Benchmark Electronics, and Celestica发布了类似的库存下降报道。  Gartner说：“在inventory daysm的这些负面的结果中，依据Gartner的数据，非常引人注目的是英飞淩，比率几乎双倍化，从2007年第三季的66.3增至下一季度的121.4。此外，其它公司的库存天数——赛普拉斯半导体、Spansion、德州仪器和Monolithic Power Systems都在增涨。” Van Hoy说：“在许多供应链中都发现了库存天数的增长，但是此种情况对半导体销售商、OEM和电子零售商尤为严重。” 要刹住库存上涨，似乎要与供应链一边的半导体提供商有关，尤其是内存、无线通信、消费类和在多种市场上的多设备供应商有关。 Gartner公司称，影响下降的因素从三月份声明发布后就一直没有改变。它们是市场条件延迟反应最直接的原因，比预期的第四季度要疲软。传统上第一季度比较疲软，据整体经济状况反映，不得不对金融界有些担心。但是现在数字正在增长，这些担心不仅属正常，而且可能比预测的更糟。 Van Hoy写到：在重返正常库存水平之前，这种过剩的库存也许会在现在引起另两个季度的库存过剩， 半导体供应链处于一个很微弱的位置，并且对未来的整体经济活动很敏感。进入2008年，企业们需要减少库存，此将能通过大范围的减量生产或价格调整实现库存降低。 Van Hoy说，Gartner公司预测到DASI保留在第一季度的严重过剩的库存状况，有可能持续到第二季度。我们看到2008第一季度已达到顶峰，DASI开始在2008第二季度开始下降。 original text Semiconductor inventory situation worse than thought: Gartner An increase in inventory days has been seen in most of the supply chain, but it is particularly severe for semiconductor vendors, communications OEMs, and electronics retailers, according to the market research company. By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News The electronics supply chain‘s semiconductor-inventory situation is worse off than earlier warnings indicated, Gartner Inc reported this morning. The market research company in March forecasted that excess inventory in the electronics supply chain from a poor Q4 2007 could continue to impact the semiconductor industry through Q2. Gartner made that statement based on the performance of its Dataquest Semiconductor Inventory Index （DASI）, which spiked significantly in Q4, to 1.16 from 1.04 in Q3 2007 on lackluster semiconductor "holiday sales" and lowered expectations for sales in Q1. The DASI assesses normal inventory levels throughout the electronics supply chain and compares them with current levels to evaluate industry trends, Gartner explained. The index gauges the normal inventory level at each stage of production that will allow for a smooth flow of products and management of the production process without inventory shortages or surpluses, the company said. "We now project that the fourth quarter of 2007 results will actually tilt the DASI higher for this period and will in fact indicate a severe excess inventory event （meaning 1.20 or higher）, coming in between 1.22 and 1.25," Gartner analyst Gerald Van Hoy wrote in today‘s Semiconductor DQ Monday Report. Van Hoy said the reason for the revision is that the DASI is predictive and uses consensus data for the next quarter‘s revenue outlook. Because Gartner is monitoring days of inventory, which is calculated from the cost of goods sold （COGS）, actual numbers can affect the final result for a previous quarter. Furthermore, Gartner uses companies‘ profit margin ratios to determine their COGS; then the ratios are used to determine inventory days, Van Hoy wrote. "The severity of the fourth quarter of 2007 spike is because we now have actual COGS numbers to enter into our model, and we see that the estimates for the first quarter of 2008 were not severe enough," Van Hoy stated. "Declining sales expectations and the associated decline in COGS resulted in the spike we are now observing." Gartner in March advised semiconductor companies to level or drop inventories. The market-research company today credited Intel for posting positive numbers with regard to inventory days. Intel dropped its inventory days from one of its highest points of 89.4 in Q4 2006 to 67.9 in Q4 2007, according to Gartner. Gartner noted similar declines in inventory days at Xilinx, Pixelworks, Mindspeed Technologies, Qimonda, Benchmark Electronics, and Celestica. Among those posting negative results in inventory daysm according to Gartner‘s data, the most dramatic was Infineon, which nearly doubled its ratio, from 66.3 in Q3 2007 to 121.4 in the following quarter. Further, inventory days at other companies—Cypress Semiconductor, Spansion, Texas Instruments, and Monolithic Power Systems—have been steadily on the rise, Gartner said. "The increase in inventory days has been seen in most of the supply chain, but it is particularly severe for semiconductor vendors, communications OEMs, and electronics retailers," Van Hoy said. "The failure to put the brakes on inventory appears to be a supply-side issue with certain semiconductor-device suppliers; this is particularly true for memory, wireless communications, consumer, and diversified suppliers that compete in several device markets," he continued. Gartner said that the reasons for the spike in the DASI （see below） have not changed since its March statements. "They are the direct result of a delayed reaction to market conditions; a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter; a traditionally weak first quarter; and worries from the financial community regarding macroeconomic conditions and warnings. But now the numbers are coming in, and those worries are not only valid, they are worse than expected," Gartner‘s report stated. "This surplus in inventory may now take another two quarters before returning to normal ranges," Van Hoy wrote. "The semiconductor supply chain is in a delicate position and vulnerable to a future macroeconomic event. Moving deeper into 2008, companies will need to drop their inventories. This might be achieved by more aggressive measures to reduce obsolete inventory or by making pricing adjustments." Gartner said it expects the DASI to remain in the "severe excess inventory" state in Q1 and possibly Q2. "We see the first quarter of 2008 as the crest, with the DASI beginning to trend down in the second quarter of 2008," Van Hoy said. 声明：本文为中国传动网独家稿件，转载请务必注明出处。
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